In this phase the existing U.S. debt system is mapped mechanically. Stocks are distinguished from flows, nominal values from real, and domestic holders from external holders. The goal is to establish invariant facts independent of ideology.
The federal debt is a stock representing accumulated past deficits. As of December 22 2025, publicly held debt was approximately \$30.8 trillion, intragovernmental holdings (mainly trust funds) were \$7.6 trillion and total gross debt was about \$38.4 trillion【589265682130222†L0-L3】. By contrast, the fiscal year 2025 deficit—an annual flow—was projected at about \$1.8 trillion【427621672574965†L74-L96】.
Debt figures are reported in nominal dollars. Real measures adjust for inflation and are critical for understanding sustainability. A rising nominal debt can coexist with a falling debt‑to‑GDP ratio if real GDP growth or inflation outpaces debt accumulation.
The bulk of U.S. federal debt is owned by domestic investors. In October 2025 about two‑thirds of publicly held debt was held domestically (Federal Reserve, mutual funds, banks, households) and roughly one‑third was held by foreign investors【327875209348979†L110-L139】. Japan and China were the largest foreign official holders【468197810869634†L4-L50】.
Gross federal debt equals the sum of publicly held debt and intragovernmental holdings. Debt is financed through Treasury auctions; the debt ceiling is a legal limit rather than an economic constraint. The interest‑rate–growth differential (r − g) influences debt dynamics. When r < g, debt can decline relative to GDP even with moderate primary deficits; when r > g, the opposite occurs.
| Component | Stock (approx) | Share | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Publicly held debt | \$30.8 trillion | ≈80 % | Owned largely by domestic investors【327875209348979†L110-L139】 |
| Intragovernmental holdings | \$7.6 trillion | ≈20 % | Held by federal trust funds【4891601508981†L1047-L1051】 |
| Total gross debt | \$38.4 trillion | 100 % | Sum of the above【589265682130222†L0-L3】 |
| Foreign holdings (subset) | \$9.2 trillion | ≈24 % of Treasuries | Major holders: Japan, China【468197810869634†L4-L50】 |